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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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